The political dynamic is changing everyday in Nepal. It is difficult to predict the likely scenario of politics considering the day to day politics. In previous posts on this blog I have included some more postive possibilities, but unfortunately politics in Nepal seems to be developing a worse case scenario.

The major political parties--UCPN-Maoist, Nepali Congress and CPN-UML have all hardened their positions. They have asserted their conditions for either changing the government or for extending the Constituent Assembly term.

The CPN-UML has asserted that there are six conditions put before the UCPN-Maoist for the formation of a national consensus government, and these conditions also deserve support from the Nepali Congress (NC) party:

  1. Immediate beginning of the process of integration and rehabilitation of the People's Liberation Army (PLA - the army of CPN-M) and bringing the PLA under the control of the government's special committee and categorizing them into separate cantonment for the purpose of integration and rehabilitation;
  2. Finalizing the exact number of the PLA who want to integrate in the security forces;
  3. Disbanding of the paramilitary structure of the Maoist Young Communist League (YCL);
  4. Returning the seized property during the insurgency;
  5. Formation of the state restructure commission, disappearance commission and truth and reconciliation commission; and
  6. Finalizing the structure and power sharing of the national consensus government.
On the other hand the UCPN-Maoist has put forward two conditions before the ruling parties for extending the time of the Constituent Assembly which will expire on May 28. Those are:
  1. Dissolving of the government; and
  2. Returning to the politics of the consensus (amendment to the Interim Constitution replacing the current majority system with the previous consensus system for sharing power and conducting state business).
Besides asserting the conditions, the UCPN-Maoist have cancelled their planned programmes including nationwide training to the Maoist cadres from May 18 and mass meeting in Kathmandu on May 25 May. In addition to these, the party has warned that it will make public the "people's federal democratic constitution" on May 29 on the occasion of the Republican Day.

In the light of the conditions advocated by the major political parties, it is also likely that the term of the Constituent Assembly may not be extended. This indicates the worse case scenario in which the political crisis will be deepen and the probability of returning to violence becomes higher.

In case the time of the Constituent Assembly is not extended, Nepal may become the 'failed state' that many people already warned about.

Ambika Pokhrel, Nepal Local Correspondent, 18 May 2010