Peace at what cost

In 2025, Ukraine is holding its breath waiting for the outcomes of the peace negotiations, and the consequences for the country. However, it is vital that both Ukraine and the European Union take part in all processes. If you are not around the table, then you are on the menu.

Ukrainians unanimously desire peace, but not at any cost. They are not ready to give up occupied territories during past 11 years. As of February 2025, Russia occupies approximately 20% of Ukraine's territory, including Crimea and parts of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson region. These territories hold strategic significance for Russia, providing access to the Black Sea, enabling the creation of a land corridor for the delivery of supplies and weapons from Russia to Crimea and the war zone, and granting access to valuable rare minerals.

The civil society, including Ukrainians who were forced to leave their country because of the war, is divided in their opinions whether to sign a peace agreement with the risk of losing the territories or continue the war. Both options offer a terrible statement: one the one hand, thousands of soldiers and civilians have died for nothing if Ukraine loses its territories; and on the other hand, more Ukrainians are likely to die if the war continues.

In any case, no peace agreement is expected before the end of the year, if at all. The question of the sustainability of the agreement is also on everyone’s mind. Will Russia uphold a new peace deal, or will it mirror the fate of the Minsk agreements, where ceasefires were repeatedly violated? What security guarantees will Ukraine have for the future? Can a peacekeeping mission effectively deter further Russian aggression? Will the international community maintain its support for civil society initiatives? These and many other critical questions remain unanswered.

USAID funding cut threatens Ukraine’s future

The US pursuit of a peace agreement comes on the heels of the Trump administration’s decision to gut USAID. The loss of USAID funding in Ukraine threatens the implementation of a number of projects across a wide portfolio, starting from economic initiatives, support for human rights, fighting corruption and the promotion of the media’s independence.

A significant example is the Veteran Hub in Vinnitsa, a structure that supports soldiers after their return from the war, offering psychological counselling, legal assistance, and career reintegration programmes. Its future is now uncertain due to funding challenges.

Similarly, the future of independent media, such as Ukraïner, Slidstvo or Bihus, are compromised due to the loss of USAID funding. These platforms play vital investigative journalism roles, exposing corruption and providing independent reporting. Without continued financial support, such civil society organisations and media will not be able to operate or maintain editorial independence, risking provision of the most vital support and democracy in Ukraine.

The funding cut was so sudden that Ukraine did not have time to prepare alternative solutions. While the civil society organisations are expecting an audit in the coming 90 days, some of them are now forced to fire their staff due to financial problems. In a country where almost half the state budget is dedicated to military efforts, it is unrealistic to believe that the Ukrainian government can substitute the withdrawal of international funders’ help.

The consequences of the stop of USAID’s funding in Ukraine are dramatically more significant than it seems. Ukraine did not have time to prepare alternative solutions. While the civil society organisations are expecting an audit in the coming 90 days, some of them are now forced to fire their staff due to financial problems. The decimation of Ukraine’s civil society due to funding cuts could have serious implications for the sustainability of any future peace agreement, starting from post-war, reconstruction and reconciliation, humanitarian and development support, to economic stability, efforts to maintain democracy and media transparency. Without strong civil society, any peace agreement risks becoming another fragile ceasefire.

The international community must recognise that supporting Ukraine’s civil society is not just a humanitarian issue, but a strategic necessity for lasting peace. The support can be done by providing grants and financial aids, offering trainings to civil society organisations, strengthening democratic governance. Humanitarian aid, including assistance for displaced persons, mental health support, and education initiatives, will help sustain communities. Supporting independent media, countering disinformation, is crucial to preserving truth and transparency.

In a country where almost half the state budget is dedicated to military efforts, it is unrealistic to believe that the Ukrainian government can substitute the withdrawal of international donors’ help.

However, the situation might be also an opportunity for the civil society to consolidate and create new grassroots movements for uniting people around mutual help and solidarity. Also, it is a chance to explore other local opportunities, and try to decrease the dependence on international organisations, forcing civil society organisations to become more independent, resilient, and rooted in local support.

Some examples of local funding could be private sector partnerships, crowdfunding, donations, stronger links with local government, among others. This approach would increase a sense of local ownership. By building stronger community networks and embracing innovative funding models, Ukrainian organisations could emerge more sustainable and effective in the long run.

After three years of a full-fledged war, the whole country has to be reconstructed and recovered. An entire population has to be cured from the trauma of the war. Full cities have to be rebuilt. Thousands of houses and buildings need to be repaired or recreated to host Internally Displaced People and returnees from abroad. Thousands of projects for reconciliation and reintegration have to be implemented across the country. Ukraine will live long and hard years for probably several decades.